02 Conditional Probability, Independent Events, & Exercise

Module 2 Probability &Reliability Statistics

Lesson M02-02

Text: Section 2 pages 6 – 13

Participant Guide: Module 2 page 11

Duration: 28 minutes

Reliability Analysis Methods

While conditional probability is not necessarily that intuitive, it plays a role in various reliability applications such as warranty forecasting, reliability prediction with burn-in, and repairable systems analysis. This lesson introduces conditional probability as well as independent events.

Exercise Questions

1. What is an example of two events that are:

a) mutually exclusive

b) independent

2. From historical football game statistics we know P(A) = .065 where A = a game with > 5 turnovers P(B) = .015 where B = a game with > .25 inches of rain on game day P(A ∩ B) = 0.007 (probability both occur)

a) Do you think A and B are independent?

b) What is the probability of a game having > 5 turnovers given that more than 0.25 inches of rain falls on game day