Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
In project management we can’t always be in control of the environment around us. We can only forecast rather than predict risk and despite our ‘reasonable’ or even ‘best’ efforts to mitigate risk; shit happens and emergencies ensue! It’s not just physical emergencies but also those related to time and cost; remember overbudget or late projects can create an emergency for shareholders and stakeholders alike.
Maybe it’s because we tend to look at the ‘big risks’ or the ‘top ten’ after some semiquantitative assessment but then fail to consider that risks can change with time as more information becomes available. Or, maybe it is because only those risks that can be clearly defined and are ‘likely’ are communicated to the eyes and ears on the ground. Those low probability, high impact risks can tend to slip under any risk radar.
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