on Risk & Safety

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

COVID-19 is now among the ranks of The Black Death, Spanish ‘Flu, and SARS.  Another submicroscopic demon is attacking humanity and bringing the mankind of this Information Age to its knees both physically and economically despite its insignificant size.

Viruses have been around longer than man and, when we become part of a future paleaontological record, they will still be plaguing whatever species takes over from us. 

We also live alongside other virulent diseases that continue to plague the world.  In 2018, TB affected 25% of the world’s population and caused some 1.5 million deaths while malaria affected 220 million people causing another 405,000 deaths.  In addition, HIV/AIDS and other diseases such as measles, cholera, and typhoid contribute to the millions of deaths annually.  Starvation, while not a disease, decimated mankind at an estimated rate of 21,000 per day in 2019. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on November 19 ,2008, Rahm Emanuel was quoted as saying; “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.  And what I mean by that [is] it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not before.”

He was referring to the crisis that was to become known as the “Great Recession” that gripped much of the world, hitting hardest from 2007-2008.  It was a period when millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure, nearly countless businesses declared bankruptcy; many being household names such as General Motors and Chrysler – along with a great number of financial institutions. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As readers of my pieces know, there are concerns about how ASQ is being managed.  These concerns have caused a split among the membership. Some hold fast and support corporate management, while others want changes. This piece is the result of a question and an exchange on the LinkedIn Restore ASQ community.

The original discussion question on Linkedin was: ‘Why didn’t the risk analysts see the pandemic coming’?  The exchange quickly devolved into those who felt that the disbanding of some ASQ Chapters is the fault of chapter members, not corporate and those who place ASQ’s troubles on corporate management. Considering the Coronavirus is forcing everyone to review assumptions, associations, and business models, it is worth visiting these issues. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Your assessment needs a clear framework to help you process the information you have and analyze the risks. Sometimes you will have one prepared but at other times, you need to do this yourself. Whatever the situation, you need to know what goes into designing and building a framework if you’re going to be successful.

You will often find that the categories, methodology and metrics you’ll use to actually evaluate your risk are given to you or prepared in advance. You simply take the information you’ve already gathered and pass it through the system.

But what do you do if you don’t have a neatly laid out process? Or how can you spot where there’s a flaw in the methodology being used? [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Major projects, particularly infrastructure projects, can be spectacular in terms of their scale, timeframe, public and private investment, and the capital cost for their implementation.  Completion is often celebrated and overruns of time and cost are temporarily put aside, technical calamities become bygone memories, and ‘success’ is the order of the day. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Here are some practical considerations you need to make in developing and implementing your COVID-19 business continuity strategies for your organization or business, or even for yourself.

If you already have some form of business continuity plans already developed, execute them. Otherwise, you have to take a practical short-cut and use the information below to flexibly develop your next steps as you go. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

When an individual or organization fears change and are uncertain, it’s usually in regard to digital technology disrupting their status quo or from new, fast-moving competition.

While I myself have discussed at length these fears and many more, few would have thought that in the early stages of 2020, our economy would be in a downturn, we would be instantly converted to remote work or laid off, and we would be quarantined to our homes due to a global pandemic. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The first part of the title is a nod to a book by the same name.  The book by Rosemary Gibson and Janardan Prasad Singh, “China Rx”, discusses the consequences of China’s dominance in the production of the world’s basic drugs and how it occurred. The “More” discusses the global supply train and how the Coronavirus is highlighting its downside. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

What is quality? In a manufacturing or heavy industry, it is to minimize the defects and errors. Today it emphasizes customer satisfaction as well. It means quality is achieved if in the end the customer or user can effectively use the product. High quality is important to project success. Poor quality has a cost. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We rely upon skilled, able and talented individuals to assist in the successful delivery projects and improve businesses.  They are gifted in their niche areas of expertise and without their stellar performances, where would we be?  They are akin to the Prima Donna of an operatic performance and they are respected for their superior skills and ability.  But when respect turns to reverence the lesser mortals around them may flail in the wake of the rising star. Such reverence may well inflate egos and a “Prima Donna” in the derogatory sense of the term may well emerge.  As their egos grow their belief in their own abilities increases and they begin to ignore reality, make facts fit their needs, and take refuge in an ivory tower from where they may look down from on-high with their heads shrouded in the clouds of sanctimony. [Read more…]

This has been one of the most disruptive week ins recent memory [late January 2020] – at the individual, country, and global levels.   I’ll go through a couple of these events. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As we get older, it’s interesting what we recall from our youth and the impact it had upon us – even if we didn’t know it at the time.  For me, I was blessed with having several teachers who supported me and influenced me a great deal. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are basically two types of risks on a project. They are programmatic risks and technical risks. A project cannot meet schedule (hence cost) without resolution of issues that affect the schedule.   Events that impact the schedule are programmatic risks. These types of risks determine the risk level of the project. The assumption in making this statement is if the schedule cannot be made, then the project will be over budget. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The CERM Risk Insights article #262 by Tom Taormina and the comments by Paul Simpson and Greg Hutchins, open an important discussion on the future of the quality profession.  This piece builds on that discussion.  The discussion is important because the quality profession is being disrupted.  Both the business approaches and professional organizations which have supported and advanced the quality profession are being affected by this disruption. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Myth Busters – Statistical Mystery Solved?

We have all heard and/or read the oft quoted “40% of all businesses experiencing a crisis go out of business within one year…”.  Ever wonder where that statistic came from?  For many years a colleague of mine, unfortunately now deceased, searched for the answer; to no avail.  No one could actually cite the source for this statistic.  Many refer to FEMA or the US Small Business Administration:

“According to a report from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 40 percent of businesses do not reopen following a disaster.  On top of that, another 25 percent fail within one year”. [Read more…]