CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We are in an interesting time in history, when transformative digital disruptions have their foot on the gas and are accelerating at exponential rates. Every industry is facing disruption in a multitude of ways, and it is now up to business leaders and their organizations to implement my Anticipatory Organization® Model and understand and identify the future certainties of Hard Trends and how to leverage them to become the disruptor before someone else does.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Humble, personal, professional, expert or even uninformed; opinions are just opinions when the facts aren’t fully known or understood.  Opinionators are merely stating their belief as to the what, why, when, where and the how something has happened and who was responsible, who is culpable and who has to do something. This belief is believed, at least by them, and, for the most part, they expect other people to believe it as well. 

Agreement brings harmony, collaboration and progress while disagreement brings confrontation, debate and procrastination while each party attempts to convert the other to their oftentimes sanctimonious viewpoint.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

How does Earn Value Management (EVM) reduce project risk? To answer this question, you have to understand what EVM is.

WHAT IS EVM?

EVM is the tool used to measure progress against the PMB. (Performance Measurement Plan).  EVM identifies poorly performing WP (Work Packages) and problem trends early in the project allowing maximum time to identify the root cause of the problem and identify an action plan to fix the problem.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are numerous papers and documents on the internet regarding a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The question is how do you create one for a new project. This paper explains how.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I have some experience with the Enneagram personality method. I found it to be accurate and useful. I suggest it is a good method to consider using to select your project team. The paper starts with a brief description of the Enneagram basics and then explains tips that can be used to select your team. Two figures are included to help explain the basics. You can go online and get a lot more detail information about the Enneagram method.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I am a curious about some of the new project team theories or methodologies that have arisen in the past 20-30 years that are undergoing a resurgent today primarily due to COVID -19 effect on the workforce. These theories are designed to improve performance and functioning of a project team by making people feel comfortable about speaking up and being creative without the fear of repercussion. Google and other Agile companies are in the process of implementing these methods.

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Employers don’t hire people – or assign them a project or task – in the hopes they will fail.  And employees don’t take on a job, project, or task in the hopes they will fail.  On the contraire, the expectations all around are that the outcome will be successful.

Certainly, sometimes the outcomes are not successful.  But these unsuccessful outcomes are generally more tolerated – even expected – in companies that are in their early stages or have a company culture that is more entrepreneurial and not so risk adverse.  And when an unsuccessful outcome in such companies occurs, it’s usually a disappointment (and you certainly don’t want to make being unsuccessful a habit), but it’s not usually a negative mark on the employee.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Based on over 30 years’ experience with project risk management, the best way I found to monitor risk mitigation plans is to incorporate them into the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS). The reason is each month (or week) when the IMS is reviewed the risk mitigation plan is also reviewed. Since the IMS is linked, a slip in a mitigation plan step can readily be seen as well as the potential impact it may have on the project.

The question is How is the risk mitigation plan integrated into the IMS? This paper will explain how it tis done. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Robots are developed to address a problem. For example, automating a production line. To achieve this goal, a multidiscipline engineering team is required.

The question is which engineering discipline should I study? I suggest you get a degree in System Engineering. This paper will explain why.

Almost daily, we hear of some problem in the supply chain. A few weeks ago, a container ship got stuck in the Suez Canal and hundreds of ships were backed up with no place to go. As well, original equipment manufacturers in Europe missed critical parts because of their Just in Time delivery practices.

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In February 2021, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published an Enterprise Risk Management Maturity Model. This model is designed for Tax Administration Agencies. It is the culmination of work that began in 2018. This work was designed to develop stand-alone maturity models for a broad range of organizational activities. One of which was Enterprise Risk Management. This piece examines this model and discusses how such models are being used by government elsewhere.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Pareto Principle, or more commonly the “80/20 rule”, is based upon the observation that 80% of the consequences of something are attributable to 20% of the causes.  The quality guru Joseph Moses Juran named the Principle in 1941 after the Italian economist who, in 1896, observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population.  The centenarian also similarly observed that 80% of quality problems result from 20% of the causes.  In the business world we also see that 80% of a company’s revenue is generated by only 20% of its customers.  As with life, things are not distributed either evenly or even fairly.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“That’s a Red Flag!” goes the cry from some when something amiss is recognised.  However, many project participants don’t realise that their Project sails through a sea of flags and that, on some occasion, the flags can be read as red by somebody at some time.

In a similar nautical vein the Roman writer Ovid once poetized “The man who has experienced shipwreck shudders even at a calm sea“.  While written some 2,000 years ago it is as true today as it ever was and a reminder to us all that risks lurk everywhere.  Some risks may not be identified, let alone assessed and may go unnoticed until they strike.  We need to be aware and vigilant and avoid a complacent belief that a risk register is the be all and end all.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Email is 50 this year…its Golden Anniversary!  It ‘happened’ in 1971 when Ray Tomlinson, the late computer engineer and first user, sent a transmission to himself utilising two independent computers…a revolutionary innovation at the time.  The content of that primordial message is long forgotten and the same may also be the fate of many of the ~300 billion emails that are sent almost every day by the estimated 4 billion users around the world.  Communication is said to bring us together or set us apart and email is no different.

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Ever Given grounding in the Suez Canal is one of those events that will be labeled a “Black Swan” for sure.  A rouge wind hits the ship turning the stern and wedging the vessel, bow and stern grounded straddling the canal and stranding ships entering from either end.  The date Tuesday 23 March 2021.  At around 7.40 a.m. local time the Ever Given ran aground.  At nearly 200 feet wide and 1,300 feet long, it easily took up the width of the channel.

[Read more…]