CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

New superconducting magnet breaks magnetic field strength records, paving the way for practical, commercial, carbon-free power fusion energy. MIT and U.S. startup company Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) led the project. This test paves the way for a demonstration device to show a plasma can be created and contained that generates more energy than it consumes. The demonstration device is expected to be completed in 2025. The hope is that in the future there will be thousands of fusion plants powering clean electric grids around the world helping to save the planet.

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Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We have general risks and, quite often when risks manifest themselves the various militaries around the world are called in to deal with the issues, crises, disasters, and catastrophes that occur.  The military do not enter these on their own volition nor are they of their own making but, in line with the principle that risk is best dealt with by the party most suited, the military are tasked by their lords and masters.

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Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I challenge you to read this paragraph and then close your eyes and focus. Think about the future. What does it look like to you? How do you think humankind operates 20, 30, or 40 years from now? Are we even more digitally connected than we already are? What behaviors or actions are commonplace now that might be nonexistent then?

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“You’ll be damned if you do and damned if you don’t”.  This was the message from First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt for those situations when you believe in your heart that you are doing the right thing even if, or when others believe it to be wrong.  This is what leaders do, they lead based upon what they believe to be right and will reap the consequences, whatever the outcome.  Leadership is about doing; it’s about making things happen through the people who follow and enabling those people to make it happen.  It’s also about being responsible for your actions and those of the others who have acted on your behalf.

Leadership has always been around in some form or another; there is always a leader of any pack or tribe.  Successful leaders and their idiosyncratic styles are not only analysed and biographed but also emulated and even imitated.  Practically speaking though it boils down to the ability of some to influence, motivate and direct teams of individuals to undertake some task or other.  The traits of leadership in turn are a function of a leader’s character and the situations in which they find themselves, the people around them, and the task at hand.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Structures are all around us, even chaos has structure albeit fractal.  We humans too involved in structures; not only do we construct physical structures, but we form organisational structures and create civilizations using the social, economic and cultural structures that rule our lives.

Some of these structures collapse due to human error, natural forces outside of our control, and man’s destructive and violent nature.  The reasons for such collapses may not be understood but, being inquisitive we strive to find out.  But these endeavours are not only earthbound as we also seek to work out the structure of the universe and its workings.  An early example of such work is from the astronomer Kepler who developed his model of our solar system.  Although geometrically fascinating it’s a far cry from our modern-day perceptions

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Question for all who read this: to succeed at any business venture, you merely need to have huge resources, dedicated personnel, and a quality product or service, right? From there, it’s just collecting money and living a good life.

This presumption is more common than you realize, and could not be more wrong and misguided. In a world where exponential change and digital disruptions abound, you simply cannot rest on your laurels and merely rely on what you’ve already built. Because of the rapidly accelerating rate of change, your business is only ever as strong as its next innovation.

Guest Post by John Mason (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A classic question for all CEOs and floor sweepers alike.  What the heck do we do and what do we want to do?  In big business there is visioning, missioning, goal setting, target measuring, market analysis, focus groups, policy and much much more, more and more.  In small business, we offer far more than we would like to do, but in order to make ends meet, we take on more and more until we finally burn out or are lucky enough to realise a cash flow that will enable us to niche or focus on what we do and what we want to do.

Guest Post by Annette Davison and Ian Wright Ph.D. (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Risk is the impact of uncertainty on achieving your objectives – the impact can be either positive or negative outcomes (ISO 31000). Governments have multiple objectives they have to meet – health and wellbeing, economic, environmental, ethical and so on. Each of these objectives essentially becomes a risk endpoint. The fundamental tenets of risk assessment are understanding the system (the context), understanding and assessing the risk (against your identified objectives), managing the risk and then monitoring whether the risk is actually controlled, and whether a further risk treatment needs to be applied.[1]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.

Based on these two dimensions, in this Part2, we will be looking at the three conditions along the certainty-uncertainty spectrum that you will face when making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Two schedule tools are widely used for the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) around the world to manage projects. The first one is Microsoft Project (MS Project). The second one is Primavera P6.  They are both very good. Primavera P6 is an Oracle product originally designed for the construction industry. MS Project is simpler and easier to learn based on my experience. It also costs less than Primavera P6. DOD uses MS Project and typically requires it for use on government contracts. Other industries use one or the other depending on the size and complexity of the project.

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Uncertainty is all around us, never more so than today. Whether it concerns a global pandemic, the economy, or your finances, health, and relationships, much of what lies ahead in life remains uncertain.

Nonetheless, life continues. You still must earn a living, take care of the family, house, and car, and walk the dog. All under these new clouds of stress and uncertainty.

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Andy Benoit once said, “Most geniuses — especially those who lead others — prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.”

This statement is so true when corporate leaders and managers tend to over-complicate processes or over-engineer systems in organizations. Designing and implementing your organization’s enterprise-wide risk management system is no exception.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Are project risks round?  Curved objects can be less controllable than planar ones as they pitch, roll and yaw; and the tighter their curves the more difficult control becomes.  Even a truly planar surface is, geometrically, a curve but with an infinite radius.  The Earth’s horizon, that imaginary plane perpendicular to its radius is considered by some to be ‘flat’ but in reality it’s a sphere so we can never see over the horizon.  But what has this got to do with project risk?

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is becoming an important topic and activity worldwide. This is in part because of COVID 19. COVID 19 focused the public’s attention on health risks. As the world comes out of the pandemic crisis, the focus, particularly in government, will be on other risks. Already, in the United States, cities which defunded the police, are reallocating money back due to rising crime. However, because of the political atmosphere and retirement of senior officers, cities are having trouble recruiting enough people to fill the vacated ranks. Adding to this problem are the consequences of riots and work from home. In many urban areas, the result has been a hollowing out of the urban core.