CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Howard M. Weiner (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
– Warren Buffett

The current pandemic has wreaked profound dislocation on businesses throughout the world and upended societal norms as we know them.  It may have been an unpredictable, ‘black swan’ event that will not recur anytime soon, though that’s open to discussion, but it’s worth evaluating your risk management practices to see whether you could have done better.  

My guess is that, with the exception of a small fraction of companies, risk management is not done particularly well and better (or at least, less-worse) outcomes could have been achieved. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world. Social distancing, face masks, confinement at home and other restrictions is the new norm. This will be the case at least for the foreseeable future as the economy re-opens. The long-term effects are yet to be determined. One change that is likely to emerge is to find a more efficient, less costly way to perform work with minimal workers to make up for lost revenue. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As COVID-19 has disrupted life all over the globe, organisations are forced to significantly change and adapt to the ever-changing customer attitudes and preferences resulting from the pandemic.

The competitive playing field and business environment have been reset. It is now back to square one for many businesses. Businesses have to operate like a start-up, big and small. And they have to start at the same time when governments relax their social isolation requirements. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Central Artery/Tunnel Project, known as the Big Dig in Boston, originally was planned to take 10 years to complete for a budget of $2.5B. It actually took 30 years and cost $14.8 B.  The traditional project framework used was inadequate for a long duration project. A new project framework, I call Adaptive Rolling Wave, is needed. It is a combination of the Adaptive Project and Rolling Wave framework, that is more suited for a long duration project because it breaks down the project into a number of smaller projects. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Working From Home (WFH)…just one of the things that the “New Normal” will bring according to a few voices from the populations of various workforces who have contributed to economies during lockdowns.  People seem to have enjoyed the utopia of ‘flexible’ working hours with a freedom to work when they want, attending virtual meetings and collaborating in on-line virtual offices. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As a risk manager, you will often be asked to explain the RoI (return on investment) of you, your team, even the whole risk management program.

Effective risk management can help an organization grasp an opportunity and realizing an upside risk should generate a positive RoI.

However, when you are focussed on shoring up a weak system, plugging gaps and minimizing risks, showing an RoI can be hard. Even so, an inability to show a positive RoI in a cost-conscious environment can threaten investment in your team. It can even make people question the value of the program as a whole. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Have faith to seize on opportunities that come your way (but the risk is within us!)

Everyone has opportunities. But it is up to us to seize the opportunities that come our way!

There will be opportunities to build lives, to better ourselves, or to serve the community.

Faith and opportunities

Faith is the complete trust or confidence in someone or something. It is the confident assurance that something we want is going to happen. Faith is the certainty that what we hope for is waiting for us, even though we cannot see it up ahead. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID19) continues to spread throughout the world despite the best efforts of governments and the medical community.  With no vaccine becoming available in the near term and perhaps even in the long term we are faced with growing uncertainty.  It seems that ever since the emergence of COVID19 that conflicting advice, information and guidance has exacerbated the situation and created a lack of trust on the part of the public on what measures to take.  Wear a mask. 

Don’t wear a mask.  Social distance.  Don’t social distance.  The only advice that seems trustworthy is “Wash your hands”; and, that is something that we should do regardless of the pandemic – it’s good common sense. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.

It was definitely time for a reorganization. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Fifty years ago, having your own car was a sign of adulthood and your ticket around town. But that is all going to change within the next five to ten years due to rising CO2 levels and a new trend called Transportation as a Service. TaaS sits at the intersection of four technical macro trends. These are:

1. Autonomous vehicles
2. Electric vehicles
3. Connectivity
4. Sharing economy

These trends are here today and are predicted to grow significantly and quickly over the next five to ten years. It is a positive trend with a lot of positive affects on the country and world.

The risk to this trend is the need for electric power will outstrip the supply. This article presents the case for this risk. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

George Bernhard Shaw once said, and it’s now been written down and put on posters and the like: “The problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place”. 

In this ‘Information Age’ we have access to, receive, generate, and send more information than ever before.  People can suffer from infoxication as a consequence of ‘information overload’ and decision making has, we are told, become more difficult as a consequence.  [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) learned of several cases of severe pneumonia in the Chinese city of Wuhan. This strain of coronavirus has since spread through China and into other countries. WHO later named COVID-19.

The emergence of the coronavirus was exactly the type of fast-emerging risk with uncertain consequences that could have triggered quick actions by governments and organisations. Instead, it was played down or dismissed by many. They adopted a wait and see approach to risk management. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

This is where the achievement of objectives must be translated into tangible successes that are linked to positive outcomes.

Growth for growth’s sake is meaningless. Achieving objectives for the sake of it is meaningless unless you want to game the system and get your financial bonuses by meeting some meaningless performance targets. It becomes a meaningless compliance exercise. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

COVID 19 throws a curve ball in the path of life and job security. If you compare life as a walk through a forest, then COVID-19 is a high stone wall (curve ball) along the path of life. Do you stop and retreat or go over or around it and continue your journey? I think you get through the pandemic and continue along the path back to job security and low unemployment. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I was shocked to find out about our drug and medical supplies reliance on China, a dangerous risk to the U.S.  I believe most Americans were also shocked. I believe this revelation is a game changer and the American people will insist on change. [Read more…]