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You are here: Home / Archives for Articles / on Risk & Safety / CERM® Risk Insights

CERM® Risk Insights

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Project Email Economics

Project Email Economics

Economics concerns itself with the determination of the most logical and effective use of resources to meet private and social goals for some form of benefit.  While primarily concerned with industry and business, its concepts of opportunity cost, supply and demand, present value, and mutual interdependence economics is also applicable to email; one of our most utilised forms of communication but, possibly, the most hated.

From its rudimentary beginnings in 1972, and despite an announcement in 2007 that email was dead and similar pronouncements by agencies such as WSJ and Forbes, email thrives.  It’s essential to businesses and this year, 2022, it’s anticipated that humans (and machines) will send 126.7 trillion emails, that’s ~15,800 per person.  For some humans, email is their raison d’etre so they may demonstrate their importance by how often they are cc’d or to whom they forward messages.  For others their perpetually full inbox, a permanent millstone round their neck, can be a symbol of futility and hopelessness as responses are demanded in time frames that can’t be supplied.

How often do we receive an email that’s also sent to a multitude of others?  How often do we question whether to respond, not respond, or even to take notice?  And how often do we question whether the email has any relevance to us, or even others.  Emails, like talk can be cheap.  When things are cheap they have little value which is of little or no benefit…and that’s simple economics.

Opportunity Cost

Opportunity cost, economically, is the cost of a decision measured by the next best alternative given up or, in other terms, the benefits you lose by choosing one alternative over another one.  From a communications perspective this “best alternative” is taken to be an email above other media such as a letter, memorandum, ‘phone call, or even a meeting.

Email can be an extremely efficient way of communicating, indeed as an opportunity in today’s marketing it’s almost indispensable.  It’s cheap, quick, simple, almost instantaneously accessible (or retrievable), paperless, and allows for mass sending thereby keeping everybody ‘in the loop’.  For many, and possibly most importantly, it’s ‘in writing’ and provides for future evidence if things go wrong.  However, its effectiveness compared with other media can be questionable as summarised below:

table of email alternative including benefits lost or gained by using email instead.

Emails, despite being pushed to us are often disregarded.  If they are unclear or poorly drafted and require clarifications, or are issued to al and sundry they may be ignored.  Alternatives are available but even though the supply of emails is never-ending, for many of us, the demand is not reciprocated.

Supply & Demand

In economics the price, or value of something is determined by supply and demand.  This price, the equilibrium price, is the value at which the quantity that consumers want to purchase equals the quantity that suppliers want to sell.  This applies to many types of communication such as books, cable TV, newspapers, but with email there’s a twist.

An email itself has little, if any, intrinsic value.  The content of an email to a ‘consumer’ may have value, there will have been some costs associated with its supply, and value may be attached to any response.  Emails can be forwarded to a consumer who may receive the same email multiple times, even without the original supplier’s knowledge or even consent, supply can certainly exceed demand for some.  Oversupply can also cut chains of command as well as spans of control and overload can cause confusion.

Emails can be akin to ‘chatting’ and as the idiom goes “Talk is cheap” because it’s easier to talk about doing something than doing it. Economically speaking it’s because “supply exceeds demand”.  Pragmatically speaking there are more emails than we need.

We use email to obtain or share information.  It’s also used to put forward opinions, involve multiple parties through multiple copies, escalate matters of importance to the sender and, in corporate rat races, cover one’s rear as well.  These tend to diminish the value of emails, but their value lies when used for legitimate or professional reasons.

Present Value

From a monetary standpoint a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future.  When it comes to email, and when used to transmit information for making decisions, the timely issue and receipt is essential for decision making.  Late decisions, or an absence of optimal information can mean the difference between success or failure, profit or loss.

Emails can take time to send, time for assimilation or interpretation, and possibly time for clarification prior to responding.  As a means of garnering opinions email can be extremely effective but only if time constraints are imposed and respected.  Late information will miss deadlines so decisions will be suboptimal due to incomplete data and, just as future money has a lower value, so do late emails.

But the value of an email for some can be historical.  Sending a ‘late’ email may be understood as being late, but it gives the opportunity for some proponents to say, ‘I told you so’.  Emails are records so, if problems arise, they may be used in any subsequent witch-hunt to either preserve or ruin reputations.  Although an almost instantaneous form of communication this is only in transmission.  A late email may miss the present, but for some its real value and benefit may well be in the future if history is investigated.

Mutual Interdependence

Mutual interdependence exists between parties because a change in one party’s strategy will affect the way in which the other behaves.  Economically this is the affect of a change in one firm’s pricing strategy on the sales and profits of others.  Email communication, outside of mass marketing and mailing lists, is, for the most part, a two-way street and the parties react to communications accordingly.

Incentives are part of such interdependence and the issuing of and response to emails are no exception.  Some people thrive on issuing emails.  They express personal opinions or ask for them, they let people know what’s ‘going on’, escalate matters as they see fit, and are seen to be ‘being busy’.  However, for effective communication some feedback is required so any would-be respondent needs to be incentivized to provide the same.  This may be fulfilling a duty of a job description, being seen to be involved, or to seek recognition.  For some it’s an act of self-preservation to avoid a reprimand or admonishment, but it may also be for their job satisfaction.

But for some, they choose not to reply.  Emails rarely get lost in the post and, although some may end up as ‘junk’ why don’t people reply?  If mutual interdependence isn’t recognised, then all too often there can be unintended consequences.  Badly crafted emails, failing to convey a precise message and make it clear that a reply is required, or requiring a recipient to read reams of trailing mails, while giving a complete history, can deter a reply.  The inclusion of multiple recipients is also a deterrent.

Another unintended consequence of emails is the ease at which they may be forwarded to others.  Recipients can easily include others.  ‘Many hands make light work’ but ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ and the supply of emails can quickly exceed any legitimate demand.  The possibility of a responses with real value diminishes.  With increasing numbers of communication channels, we will experience diminishing returns and the probability of responses with value is inversely proportional to the number of recipients.

Conclusions

Studies show that tens of billions of dollars are lost annually because of poor communications.  These losses affect national economies as well as businesses and are manifested in slowdowns, project delays, and lost opportunities due to poor or late decisions and disputes.  Email is a contributory factor.

Email can be a boon, but its misuse can easily reduce the value of communication.  It can disincentivise those whose mailbox is perpetually full, overload others who are unable to respond, and create communication channels that are not needed.

Email, like talk, appears cheap, but if there’s a dispute, its only cheap until you hire your lawyer…so make sure your email is the economically viable communication opportunity.

Bio:

Malcolm Peart is an UK Chartered Engineer & Chartered Geologist with over thirty-five years’ international experience in multicultural environments on large multidisciplinary infrastructure projects including rail, metro, hydro, airports, tunnels, roads and bridges. Skills include project management, contract administration & procurement, and design & construction management skills as Client, Consultant, and Contractor.

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Company Acceptance of Hybrid PM is High Risk

Company Acceptance of Hybrid PM is High Risk

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A Hybrid Methodology combining the speed and flexibility of Agile and the structure of Waterfall is feasible and practical. I base my opinion on the research I have done. I recently presented a Webinar to Project Management Institute (PMI) members on how to merge Agile and Waterfall to achieve a Hybrid methodology. The focus of this paper is to address the greatest risk to a company in implementing the new methodology i.e., acceptance of it. I addressed how to accomplish the merger to achieve a Hybrid method in a paper I wrote and posted on LinkedIn in May

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Risk Based, Decision Making

Risk Based, Decision Making

Go out on a limb. That’s where the fruit is.||
Jimmy Carter – U.S. President

Working It in VUCA time emphasizes Risk Based, Problem Solving (RBPS) and Risk Based, Decision Making (RBDM), which are the essence of self-management, execution, career resilience, and career agility.

Years ago, our mantra was risk management should be part of the tool box of all engineers.  Why?  Engineers live and work in the world of uncertainty and risk.  Then things changed.  In VUCA time, we say that risk is the entire toolkit and lens for ALL work and living in VUCA time.  McKinsey, the global consulting firm, explains the connection between problem solving and decision making:

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Risk Culture Does Not Exist: It’s All About Risk Maturity

Risk Culture Does Not Exist: It’s All About Risk Maturity

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)


Interest in risk culture has been growing since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It is a topic that is getting more and more spotlight.

Regulatory authorities are demanding that financial institutions improve their ‘risk culture’. Workplace health and safety authorities are urging organisations to improve their ‘safety culture’. Everyone is talking about having a ‘customer experience culture’. And the list goes on.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Mental Risk: Solitude is Pleasant: Loneliness is Not

Mental Risk: Solitude is Pleasant: Loneliness is Not

Guest Post by Bill Pomfret (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Mental Health Awareness week is fast approaching. This year [2022] it is from 9th-15th May, and the theme is Loneliness, Anna Neagle is right, in her book Cultivating and being happy in our own company is important, but even the most introverted among us benefit from human connection and where increasingly people have started working from home, or in a hybrid home/workplace setting, we need to proactively seek that connection out.  Connection can be with our close circle, or even from small talk with strangers the research shows that both are helpful for our well-being.

Maybe you’re new to a city and struggling to make friends. Or the people you love seem to be in a different phase of their lives than you are. Or you’ve got all the friends you could possibly want, but you still don’t feel connected. At one time or another, everyone has felt lonely. It’s just one      of those things that happens sometimes. The hard part is dealing with loneliness when it overcomes you.

“It’s something every human being has gone through or will go through, In fact, a study analysis in Perspectives on Psychological Science suggests this feeling is involved in everything from depression and alcoholism, to strokes, decreased immune system, and early death, Here’s how to     deal with loneliness when you inevitably get hit with the blues.

  1. Create a list of activities you can do by yourself.

Ironically, if you only ever try to cure your loneliness by surrounding yourself with people, it can be remarkably short-lived. “As soon as that person leaves, you’re lonely again,” Instead, have a list of simple activities you enjoy or would be willing to try when you’re lonely: a puzzle, playing on your phone, crocheting, quilting, watching movies, painting, screenwriting. The goal is to distract from the acute loneliness in a healthy way

Better yet, date yourself, says Kate Balestrieri, a licensed psychologist in Los Angeles, California. “We can use [loneliness] as an opportunity to get to know ourselves better,” she explains. Take yourself to dinner, a movie, the park, a museum, a place you’ve always wanted to go. Many people look to relationships to regulate their emotions, Balestrieri says, and feeling lonely can be an opportunity to learn to do that for yourself.

  1. Look for activities where you can be alone with other people.

Think Meet Up groups, library clubs, city events, and so on, If you can establish a new hobby that puts you with like-minded people, even better. Always wanted to hike or paint or learn photography? Look for classes or groups that are welcoming to beginners. The goal is to find a place where you’ll be around people, even if you’re not necessarily making friends. If you happen to meet somebody great there, even better.

  1. Make a list of the people you can be with when you’re lonely.

Is it a friend, family member, or an acquaintance who keeps things positive? Give yourself a list of people to lean on when you feel like you don’t have anyone to talk to. You want to keep your options open, Dr. Bill Pomfret says, so list as many as you can. Avoid leaning on a single person, if you can  it can put too much pressure on the relationship and leave you reeling if they’re not available when you call.

  1. Try to be social sometimes — even if you don’t feel like it.

Does the idea of talking to new people make you break out in a cold sweat? That’s not unusual. Loneliness has a way of making social interaction seem pointless. “At some point, you just have to make yourself do it,” Pomfret says. Daily affirmations, like positive “I” statements, could help. “I am interesting, I have things to offer, I am not afraid of rejection” are a few good examples, Pomfret says.

  1. Try giving back.

Maybe it’s volunteering to play with cats at the local animal shelter, dog walking, serving meals at a homeless shelter, or visiting people in nursing homes. Contributing to your community in a way that feels good can be wonderful for loneliness. The interactions can help build positive connections with new people — or pets — who are happy to see you, without leaning too heavily on a friend group, Pomfret says.

  1. Find a way to move your body that you enjoy.

It’s not so much about exercise as it is about getting in touch with your sensory system, Pomfret says, which can encourage a state of connection and flow. “What you’re trying to do is engage your body and engage your mind out of the loneliness,” he explains. Surfing, playing soccer, sailing, walking barefoot in sand or grass — all of these can help you pay attention to the sensations in your body.

  1. Consider going to therapy.

Even if you’re skeptical of therapy’s other values, it can be helpful for loneliness simply because you’re being heard and valued and gives you someone to talk to. “Sometimes it’s just about somebody listening to you,” Pomfret says. “And that’s very important.”

  1. See if your company has an Employee Assistance Program (EAP).

If you’re looking for help but you don’t totally know where to begin, check to see if your employer has an EAP. Often, they will offer free or discounted benefits that include access to counselors and therapists who can help you work through your loneliness.

  1. Take a social media break.

Social media can bring people together, but it can also make people feel terribly lonely, and experience FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out. A study from the University of Pennsylvania that was published in the Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology found a causal connection between  social media use and feelings of depression and loneliness.  So, know that if your social media is making you feel more distant than connected, you’re not alone. Consider deleting the apps from your phone and giving yourself a break.

  1. Get some sunshine.

It might seem silly but getting out in the sunshine and fresh air can do wonders for your mental health. Getting sun can trigger your body to produce endorphins and serotonin, which have positive effects on how you feel. Of course, remember to wear sunscreen.

  1. Remember loneliness is temporary.

Even if you’re feeling lonely now, that doesn’t mean you’ll always feel lonely or you’ll never find a community that nourishes you. “You are the architect of your future,” Pomfret says. “You get to go out and make new bonds.” he adds that absolutely everyone has something to offer in relationships. You’ve just got to go out and create them.

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One of the quotes I use on a regular basis is,

“There is little difference in people, but that little difference, makes a big difference, the little difference is attitude, the big difference is whether the attitude is positive or negative”.

Last year I wrote an article “Avoiding Loneliness when working from home” and if you would like a free copy of our PDF which you can use internally to educate your teams on simple steps, they can take to manage this proactively. Alternatively if you are looking for a talk either face to face or online about why human connection is important and why we need to look more proactively at managing this in our lives we do have a few slots still available that week and I can talk you through the session before hand to see if you can see value in it for your workforce.

A poet is a nightingale who sits in darkness, and sings to cheer its own solitude with sweet sounds,

Bio:

Dr. Bill Pomfret of Safety Projects International Inc who has a training platform, said, “It’s important to clarify that deskless workers aren’t after any old training. Summoning teams to a white-walled room to digest endless slides no longer cuts it. Mobile learning is quickly becoming the most accessible way to get training out to those in the field or working remotely. For training to be a successful retention and recruitment tool, it needs to be an experience learner will enjoy and be in sync with today’s digital habits.”

Every relationship is a social contract between one or more people.  Each person is responsible for the functioning of the team.  In our society, the onus is on the leader.  It is time that employees learnt to be responsible for their actions or inaction, as well.  And this takes a leader to encourage them to work and behave at a higher level.  Helping employees understand that they also need to be accountable, visible and communicate what’s going on

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Agile EVM Based DOD Software Development Project WBS

Agile EVM Based DOD Software Development Project WBS

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“Department of Defense (D0D) acquisition must improve program while working within budgetary constraints. The DoD community shows an interest in utilizing Agile methodologies, but struggles to reap Agile’s benefits. They encountered challenges including the historically built-up processes that enforce heavy-weight oversight, the outdated, manufacturing focused Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) provided in DoD Handbook: Work Breakdown Structures (WBS) for defense Material Items (MIL-STD-881C), and the inability of traditional waterfall-based process to accommodate iterative development.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Disruption is Creating New Work Worlds

Disruption is Creating New Work Worlds

There are lots of lessons to learn from Amazon. Never stop innovating or questioning the fundamentals of your business. Disrupt yourself before others do.
Brad Stone – Journalist & Author

Consulting firms, academics, and consultants are developing models for the Future of Work.   Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) developed a scenario called the Future of Work: A Journey to 2022.  The premise of the study is: “disruptive innovations are creating new industries and business models, and destroying old ones.”[i]  PwC outlined three distinct worlds of work: Blue, Green, and Orange.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Disengaged and Stressful Workplaces Create Risk for Organizations

Disengaged and Stressful Workplaces Create Risk for Organizations

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace: 2022 Report found that only 21% of employees are engaged at work and 44% of employees experienced a lot of stress on the previous day – both findings are up 1% from 2021.

In one of the largest studies of burnout, Gallup found the biggest source was “unfair treatment at work.” That was followed by an unmanageable workload, unclear communication from managers, lack of manager support and unreasonable time pressure.

Disengagement and stress in workplaces are good indicators of an organisation’s workplace climate. They can also provide insights into potential issues with the organisation’s culture.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

The Two Types of Agility You Need

The Two Types of Agility You Need

Guest Post by Howard Wiener (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

If your business is going to survive, you must be able to read and react to changes in your markets and continuously improve your competitive position.  It’s more important now than it’s ever been.

SWOT is a model often employed to characterize a company’s competitive position in terms of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.  If a competitor creates a new offering that you can’t match, that’s a weakness.  If you have one that they can’t match, it’s a strength. 

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Are you in Control of Your Risk

Are you in Control of Your Risk

Guest Post by Annette Davison Ph.D (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

According to the definition in ISO 31000, risk is the impact of uncertainty on [achieving] your objectives. Of course, this impact can be both negative or positive. ISO 31000 states the following:

“Clause 6.4.2 Risk identification: The organisation should identify risks, whether or not their sources are under its control.

Clause 6.4.3 Risk analysis: The effectiveness of existing controls.”

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Type of Contract You Bid on Effects Your Risk

Type of Contract You Bid on Effects Your Risk

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are two basic types of contracts applied to development projects. They are Firm Fixed Price (FFP) and Cost-Plus (CP). Each type has a number of different variations shown in Table 1. FFP contracts are for projects with mature technology, less uncertainty, and more predictability. CP contracts are for projects with new technology, a lot of uncertainty, and less predicability. There are other types of contracts but are out of scope for this paper.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Project Trust, Respect, & Toxicity: Impossible Menage a Trois?

Project Trust, Respect, & Toxicity: Impossible Menage a Trois?

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

People!  People in positions of authority wish for popularity, they may demand respect in one way or another but, above all, being trusted is perhaps the most desirable.  Trust, they say, needs to be won, respect is awaited expectantly but not necessarily given enjoyably, and popularity is fleeting.  In the absence of trust and respect, and despite any feelings of friendship or congeniality, toxic environments can prevail even though their obnoxiousness is well known as is the souring effect on human relationships.

Everything, at some point, involves people and relationships of some sort will develop in one way or another.  Psychologically speaking, relationships are based on individuals and their personal needs or desires for socialising and maintaining both a physical and emotional balance.  The same is also true of groups of people.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Badly Designed Organizations Always Perform Poorly

Badly Designed Organizations Always Perform Poorly

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

If your organisation is suffering from performance issues despite what you consider well-executed strategies, plans, and initiatives, then you have a range of roadblocks holding you back.

Typically, when organisations are losing market share or not making achieving their revenue targets, the first thing they do is to change their goals, strategy, mission, structure, vision, values etc, and even their plans.

Looking externally seems to be the easiest when organisations are suffering a range of performance challenges that they want to improve.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

How to Manage Risks During New Product Development

How to Manage Risks During New Product Development

Guest Post by Dianna Deeney (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

New product development engineers are managing risks, daily, with each design decision: unknown risk in creating something new, risk introduced through a failure, human factors risk, and other risks related to products and services. Their design decisions affect downstream activities (from production through disposal) and the bottom-line success of the product in the market. How can engineers manage these risks through the design process?

Proactively managing risks can be an iterative part of product design engineering. Risks can be managed at the early concept phases of development when changes to the design are easier to make. Finding and addressing risks also helps the team to avoid surprises late in development and after the product has been released to the market. The results are not only managing risks but also managing the design process for a more successful product.

[Read more…]

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by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Top line Project Reporting – Bottom Lie Project Management

Top line Project Reporting – Bottom Lie Project Management

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Projects are about businesses and business is about money.  Very few firms are not-for-profit and profit margins are fundamental to ensuring a company’s survival in the dog-eat-dog world of the markets they operate in.  Profit declaration is an essential part any company’s annual report and a quick, but not necessarily accurate indicator of its financial health.

According to the microeconomic ‘Theory of the Firm’ companies exist to maximize net profits and all decisions must bear this in mind. But profit margins are based upon forecasts and assumptions until a final account is determined.  It’s only then that the grim reality of undeniable and irreversible losses is seen or the comfort any balance hasn’t slipped into the red, or the euphoria that predetermined margins have been maintained or even exceeded!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

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