JD Solomon — Active Contributor

Author of Communicating with FINESSE articles.

This author's archive lists contributions of articles and episodes.

About JD Solomon

JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP provides facilitation, business case evaluation, root cause analysis, and risk management. His roles as a senior leader in two Fortune 500 companies, as a town manager, and as chairman of a state regulatory board provide him with a first-hand perspective of how senior decision-makers think. His technical expertise in systems engineering and risk & uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation provides him practical perspectives on the strengths and limitations of advanced technical approaches. In practice, JD works with front-line staff and executive leaders to create workable solutions for facilities, infrastructure, and business processes.

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Why Reliability Engineers Should Beware of Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo analysis has key limitations that make it a major concern for reliability programs. This is not to say that reliability engineers should not embrace Monte Carlo analysis – in fact, they should. Monte Carlo analysis is one of the key techniques for managing uncertainty. This article discusses four contradictions that every organization should be aware of (and beware) when applying to reliability programs and managing uncertainty. A balanced approach that combines qualitative and quantitative techniques is recommended.

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Eight Important Insights Reliability Engineers Gain from Monte Carlo Analysis

Understanding system performance and total cost of ownership is fundamental to reliability programs for facilities and infrastructure. As reliability engineers know, all of our knowledge is about the past. All of our decisions are about the future. Monte Carlo analysis is our best tool for bridging our knowledge of the past with future uncertainties.

Monte Carlo analysis calculates the probability of outcomes by running multiple simulations using random variables. Analysis using Monte Carlo simulations aligns closely with reliability programs, in which thousands of assets vary in cost and decay rates by orders of magnitude. The power of most first-generation models using Monte Carlo simulations lies more in the insights than in the absolute values of the forecasts.

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Top Reliability Engineers Make Risk Management Simple for Every Frontline Worker

Think about the greatest risk you have encountered in the past five years. Maybe it was related to physical injury or serious sickness. It could be related to the mental health of a family member. Natural disasters or career changes are obvious ones. In fact, you can probably think of more than one great risk you have recently experienced.

Now, what is the definition of risk? In technical sessions and my workshops, well-educated business professionals struggle with the terminology. It usually takes two to three minutes for someone to arrive at their definition. The sad news is that there are about as many definitions as there are well-educated people in the room.

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How Reliability Engineers Should Address Risk for Rare Events

Rare-event risks make or break any capital project because we manage them poorly. By contrast, traditional project risks are handled well in the engineering and construction industry. Reliability engineers employ systems thinking to address tasks ranging from root cause analysis to forecasting future trends. A few key issues are important for understanding when and how to handle rare events.

Five Years as a Breakpoint for Minor and Major Projects

Project risks are inherent to every major facility and infrastructure project. Five years from engineering through construction is a good breakpoint for the difference between minor and major projects. Project risk modeling is typically performed using probability distributions derived from historical data on cost and schedule.

Seven Types of Rare Events

Rare event categories include Economic, Informational, Physical (key equipment), Human Resource, Reputational, Psychopathic Acts, and Natural Disasters. Another description can be extreme events. The thought process for including them is “externally driven.” Modeling of rare events is performed with a Bernoulli distribution (occurring over the project life cycle or not, on a one-time basis) or a Poisson distribution (occurring over the project life cycle or not, potentially more than once).

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Can Understanding Risk Appetite Help a Reliability Engineer’s Career?

Reliability engineers often struggle with the concept of risk appetite and how it impacts decision making. The long answer is that risk appetite is real and has been recognized by decision analysis academics and gurus over the past fifty years. The shorter, more practical answer is that risk appetite exists in every organization, but it is more implicit than explicit. Context (timing and position) significantly affects risk appetite.

My appetite is often driven by what I ate recently, who else is sharing the meal, and who is doing the cooking. But then, some days I want chicken and some days I want steak.

Risk Defined

Colloquially and according to most dictionaries, risk is defined as “the possibility of loss or injury; peril” (Merriam-Webster).

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Systems Thinking Improves Reliability and Dependability (15 ways to do it)

Organizations can systematically enhance reliability and dependability by integrating key approaches into the development, deployment, and maintenance processes of their products and systems. Systems thinking rules! Despite subtle differences in terminology, regular assessments and updates should be conducted to address emerging challenges and technological advancements. This article provides a brief description and demonstration of several key approaches for enhancing reliability and dependability.

Reliability and Dependability Are Often Used Interchangeably

When it comes to choosing the right word to describe a product or service, the terms “reliability” and “dependability” are often used interchangeably. However, there are subtle differences between the two that can impact how they are perceived in practice and by consumers.

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Why Fix Your Asset Management Program When Replacement Asset Values Are Missing

Asset management for facilities and infrastructure has fallen into the leadership realm of gearheads and data managers. The result is asset management programs that are years (or decades) and hundreds of thousands (or millions) of dollars into their programs and still cannot produce realistic replacement values for their assets.

Too Much Time in the Wrong Places?

Does it matter that we have spent most of our attention on asset management systems, GIS integrations, condition assessments, and preventive maintenance programs? You bet it does. And you may have put too much time in the wrong places. [Read more…]

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How to Choose Performance Indicators That Actually Drive Success

The idea of anything worth doing is worth measuring is a persistent one. The persistent problem is that measuring performance becomes much more difficult as we move into the realms of strategic plans, management systems, and reliability programs. In many cases, choosing performance indicators and measures is less about choosing new ones and more about realignment and refinement of old ones. However, in some cases, it’s simply better to retool. These are a few considerations for getting started. [Read more…]

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Six Powerful Communication Resources for Reliability Engineers

Reliability professionals need clear communication when presenting to senior leaders. Yet as technical experts, most of us haven’t been trained for these high-stakes moments. We know our material inside and out, but struggle to make it resonate with executives who think differently. The Tackle Shop at JD Solomon Solutions offers practical resources, tools, and guidance to help bridge the communication gap and ensure your message captures the attention of senior leaders. [Read more…]

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A Practical Path to Better Asset Prioritization and Critical Assets

You will quickly run out of time, budget, and patience if your organization treats every asset as if it were the center of the universe. The Solomon-Oldach Asset Prioritization (SOAP) method offers a practical, facilitation-friendly approach for identifying which assets matter most. SOAP was developed as a streamlined alternative to the exhaustive (and exhausting) criticality assessments that often bog down teams. SOAP delivers a defensible, operationally relevant ranking of critical assets and systems with a fraction of the effort involved in traditional processes. [Read more…]

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The Origins and Power of the FINESSE Fishbone Diagram for Reliability Engineers

You get a few raised eyebrows when you claim to be Communicating with FINESSE. Well, at least you do if the person on the other end does not understand that FINESSE stands for something. Or if they do not understand what a fishbone diagram is. Here’s a short review of the origins of FINESSE and how the FINESSE fishbone diagram powers the communication of reliability engineers.

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Three Solutions for Reliability Professionals Making Big Presentations

Communicating effectively is essential when big decisions are at hand, especially for reliability professionals presenting to senior management or boards. However, most of us do not receive formal training or have tailored strategies for big, high-stakes presentations. This guide offers three practical solutions to enhance your presentation skills.

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How Reliability Professionals Can Overcome the 3 Barriers to Effective Communication

As reliability professionals, we’ve all had moments where our message falls flat, a misunderstanding occurs, or a simple conversation gets bogged down. It’s usually due to one of the big three barriers to effective communication: language, accessibility, and generational differences. The seven cause-and-effect factors (the “bones” of FINESSE) are designed to overcome all three barriers. However, it’s important to understand the context of each of the three barriers. Here’s a quick look at each one.

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How the Tail Fin of the FINESSE Fishbone Diagram Improves Big Decisions

It takes months or years of presentations to make a big decision. The relationships of interacting parts and people will change. Some uncertainties will become more certain, while others will emerge. Ethics are the way we make decisions and, therefore, are the one thing that propels us through our journey. The FINESSE fishbone diagram provides the seven essential elements for effective communication for big decisions. Playing on the theme of a fish, a fish’s tail fin provides it with propulsion. Let’s explore the tail fin of the FINESSE fishbone diagram.

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How the Bottom Fin of the FINESSE Fishbone Diagram Improves Big Decisions

Communicating related to big decisions is a long game. Many presentations involving uncertainties and changing information will be made over months if not years. The FINESSE fishbone diagram provides the seven essential elements for effective communication for big decisions. Playing on the theme of a fish, a fish’s bottom fin provides it with stability. Let’s explore the bottom fin of the FINESSE fishbone diagram.

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