Fred Schenkelberg — Thought Leader

I often joke that being a reliability engineer makes it difficult to get on an airplane. Yet air travel is by far the safest method of transportation. Maybe I just think about failure too much.

When a project manager views the day’s tasks, she sees timelines, connections, dependencies. When a marketing manager views a product idea, she sees benefits, sales channels, and profits. When a reliability engineer views a prototype, she sees the many ways it can fail.

Underlying how we view the world includes our assumptions, reasoning, and experience. We understand the world around us via the set of filters we use. We form conclusions and make decisions much the same way. Quickly and mostly automatically. [Read more…]

One of my standing searches revealed an article that has shows a nice example of reliability data analysis. The author analyzed the time-to-violent-death of Roman emperors. The article is interesting in a historical sense plus illustrates a few key points for any life data analysis.

The article, “Statistical reliability analysis for the most dangerous occupation: Roman Emperor” by Joseph Homer Saleh takes a look at the 69 Roman emperors and 62% of them that suffered a violent death. The idea of the study was to determine if there is some pattern to the deaths and if the analysis would reveal any insights for those studying the era of the Roman emperors. [Read more…]

Some may argue that just enough reliability data is just the right amount. Too much may lead to confusion, too little doesn’t inform well. The reliability work we do helps others make decisions, and recent work in how humans make decisions may help us prepare and present our results effectively.

If preparing reliability data-based recommendations, consider using less information. Ed O’Brien and Nadav Klein have found decision-makers tend to use much less data or information to make a decision than they think they will need.

If using data and the derived information to make a decision consider the situation carefully to know when to use a structured decision-making approach or to simply go with your gut. Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein provide some insights and basic guidelines for decision making. [Read more…]

I have found the best way to lose an audience is to focus on statistical derivation. While this is a fascinating subject for me, it just doesn’t seem to hold an audience’s attention.

Having something interesting and useful to say is key to maintaining an audience’s attention, yet at times how we present helps them become distracted.

So, given great content or proposal, how can you help your audience not quickly check their phone, yet again? [Read more…]

Years ago I was a part of a reliability engineering community and I had not met more than two or three members. This was before the internet and was using a new-fangled system called an email list.

At the time, it filled the role of helping me understand the many facets of reliability engineering. It helped me answer questions and allowed me to help others as well.

My desire is to help create more such communities that can help you and your organization improve the discussion concerning reliability. Let’s explore exactly how to make this work. [Read more…]

Ran across this question the other day from someone just starting in the role of reliability engineer. I wasn’t smart enough to ask this question when I started in the field, yet looking back I’m sure to have found the list of what one should learn and apply daunting. [Read more…]

Published in Quality Progress in Nov. 2018, pp 34-39. Final 1/27/18  Posted here with permission of Dr. Wayne Nelson and by his suggestion. 

PREDICTING REPAIR RATES WITH PLOTS

Guest post by: Wayne B. Nelson, consultant

Schenectady, NY ,  WNconsult@aol.com 

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