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You are here: Home / Archives for Fred Schenkelberg

Fred Schenkelberg — Thought Leader

Author of CRE Preparation Notes, Musings", NoMTBF, multiple books & ebooks>, co-host on Speaking of Reliability>/a>, and speaker in the Accendo Reliability Webinar Series.


This author's archive lists contributions of articles and episodes.

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Value of a Great Question

The Value of a Great Question

Some time ago, earlier in my career, I worked for a wonderful boss. She would stop by my office on occasion and ask ‘what’s new?’ or “how’s it going?’ Just a check-in. I often let her know about the current vexing problem I was struggling with at the moment.

The funny thing is she never directly solve the problem for me. She certainly could have. Instead, she would ask a couple of questions that always helped me to find the solution. This happened with problems concerning dealing with a difficult person, strange material properties, motivating change within a group, or finding someone that could design and run a computational fluid dynamic model for me.

It was her questions the helped. She did this in meetings, in presentations, and when she swung by my office for a chat. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Power of a Sample

The Power of a Sample

We use a sample to estimate a parameter from a population. Sometimes the sample just doesn’t have the ability to discern a change when it actually occurs.

In hypothesis testing, we establish a null and alternative hypothesis. We are setting up an experiment to determine if there is sufficient evidence that a process has changed in some way. The Type II Error, $-\beta-$ is a measure of the probability of not concluding the alternative hypothesis is true when in reality it is true.

The power, $-1-\beta-$, reflects the ability of the sample to correctly lead us to the conclusion that an actual change has occurred when in reality it actually has. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Infrastructure Is Not a One Time Investment

Infrastructure Is Not a One Time Investment

In a recent blog post, Seth Goin discussed the need for ongoing investment to maintain infrastructure. Whether a road or building or even your own skills, it takes regular care to avoid system failures or obsolesce. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Type I and Type II Errors When Sampling a Population

Type I and Type II Errors When Sampling a Population

In hypothesis testing, we set a null and alternative hypothesis. We are seeking evidence that the alternative hypothesis is true given the sample data. By using a sample from a population and not measuring every item in the population, we need to consider a couple of unwanted outcomes. Statisticians have named these unwanted results Type I and Type II Errors. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Is SPC Part of the Reliability Toolkit?

Is SPC Part of the Reliability Toolkit?

Statistical process control, SPC, is a set of tools to enable monitoring the stability of a process. SPC is also the first step to checking process capability with measures such as Cpk. Many consider SPC a quality or manufacturing tool. Yet, having and maintaining a stable process is also essential to creating a reliable product. Let me explain why. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

Single Sample Z-test Hypothesis Testing for Mean with Known Variance

Single Sample Z-test Hypothesis Testing for Mean with Known Variance

In the situation where you have a sample and would like to know if the population represented by the sample has a mean different than some specification, then this is the test for you. Oh, you also know, which is actually rather rare in practice, the actual variance of the population you drew the sample. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Reliability Questions and Decisions

Reliability Questions and Decisions

Very few reliability decisions are made by reliability engineers. Yet, reliability engineers are asked many questions concerning reliability. How reliable will this design be for customers? How will the system likely fail? How many failures should we expect next month?

How you answer these and the many other questions received does impact the reliability of your product or system. The information provided those that ask reliability related questions, with useful and practical information, can make better decisions which improves reliability performance.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg 3 Comments

AND and OR Gate Probability Calculations

AND and OR Gate Probability Calculations

In system modeling and fault tree analysis (FTA) we use a set of similar calculations based on Boolean logic, the AND and OR gate probability calculations. Within FTA, the AND and OR gates are just two of many possible ways to model a system. Within system modeling, often reliability block diagrams (RBD) we model parallel and series elements of a system.

In order to do these basic calculations, we need to consider a few assumptions then proceed to the math.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Purpose of Reliability Engineering Work

The Purpose of Reliability Engineering Work

An immediate purpose is to earn a living. You also may suggest the work is to improve the reliability of the product or system. Reduce downtime, reduce warranty, increase profit, etc.

That is fine for the overall purpose of reliability engineering work, yet in the day to day work, the specific task level, what is the purpose behind what we do?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg 1 Comment

The Design for Risk Idea

The Design for Risk Idea

Yesterday had the chance to review the long list of Design for X topics. Assembly, environment, maintainability, and of course reliability, plus about a dozen other areas of focus. How is a design team to navigate all these different sets of constraints and objectives along with crafting a solution that works?

With a little creativity, you could relate every Design for X topic to reliability. Easier to assembly, fewer assembly errors leading to field failures, for example.

Another way to think about the Design for X space is to consider a superset instead. What are all these design considerations really about? What is common, including the design for reliability topic? With a little thought, it seems clear to me that we all are really considering how to identify and manage risk. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Tips on Presenting Reliability Data Well

Tips on Presenting Reliability Data Well

“Speak with Data!” commanded my former general manager. “Let the Data Sing” is an article I wrote long ago. We all have data, often too much data. We like to present based on what the data says. Yet, sometimes the speaking with data is not clear.

If you’ve done the data gathering, the analysis, the summary, all based on the data, how can you best reveal what the data says to enhance your results and recommendations?

Just because you can add a 3D pie chart doesn’t mean you should. Crafting meaningful charts is only one part of the puzzle. You also have to present the data in a clear and meaningful manner. Here is a set of suggestions to consider the next time you are preparing and presenting when data is involved. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Risk Matrix as a Communication Tool

The Risk Matrix as a Communication Tool

Not all risks the same. Some are minor with little consequence, while others are not. Every organization or reliability program facings a plethora of risks and being able to communicate the range of identified risks is helped by using a risk matrix.

The risk matrix is a simple two-dimensional grid that lays out on one access the expected consequence of risk, from minor to catastrophic. The other axis has the likelihood or occurrence of the risk becoming realized, ranging from rare too certain.

The boxes within the grid then contain classifications ranging from low to extreme, which provide a prioritization to address the risk in some fashion. Low-risk items are those with rare occurrences and insignificant consequences. The other end of the spectrum are extreme risks that are almost certain to occur and have catastrophic results. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Risk Management

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Prioritizing Urgent v Important Reliability Tasks

Prioritizing Urgent v Important Reliability Tasks

As reliability professionals, we have a lot to do. Risks to identify, failures to analyze. Plans to draft, numbers to crunch. Meetings, writing, research, and leading fill the day.

The list of tasks that you have before you each day is impressive and daunting. So, how do you focus on what actually requires your attention and not just the tasks that get your attention?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg 2 Comments

There Might be 50 Reasons to Use a Histogram (or Bar Chart)

There Might be 50 Reasons to Use a Histogram (or Bar Chart)

When confronted with a stack of data, do you think about creating a histogram, too? Just tallied the 50th measurement of a new process – just means it’s time to craft a histogram, right?

There isn’t another data analysis tool as versatile. A histogram (bar chart) can deal with count, categorical, and continuous data (technically, the first two graphs would be bar charts). It like a lot of data yet reveals secretes of even smaller sets. A histogram should be on your shortlist of most often graphing tools. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Building on a Good Reliability Goal

Building on a Good Reliability Goal

If we set a product reliability goal of 99% reliable over two years in the requirements document, what are we supposed to do tomorrow? On the other hand, if our goal is to write 1,000 pages for the next great novel by the end of the year and we have no pages written so far, well, we should write a page or two tomorrow.

A good goal provides a vision, a measurable milestone, a target. What it lacks is what we do from now till achieving that goal. If the goal is 1,000 pages in 365 days, we may want to set up a process to write at least 3 pages per day.

So, given a reliability goal, what do we do tomorrow, next week, and each week between now and when the goal is due?

A Good Reliability Goal

In previous work, I’ve written about setting reliability goals, connecting the goal to customer expectations, technical capability, and business needs. Plus, have written about the four (five) parts of a complete goal, including Function(s), Environment, Duration, and Probability (and all four continue to get more difficult as customers expect more).

A well-stated reliability goal provides direction and a measurable target for the entire team. It provides a basis to compare progress and to help frame “is the design reliable enough yet” discussions.

This is all well and good, yet is it enough? [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

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