There is something very powerful about working in teams. That power becomes evident when you look at teams as human structures built to deliver reliable outcomes. Managers who want higher reliability, top quality production and fewer problems need to understand why teams are so powerful and how to gain that power for themselves.
[Read more…]We Need to Try Harder to Avoid MTBF
Just back from the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium and not happy. While there are signs, a proudly worn button, regular mentions of progress and support, we still talk about reliability using MTBF too often. We need to avoid MTBF actively, no, I mean aggressively.
Let’s get the message out there concerning the folly of using MTBF as a surrogate to discuss reliability. We need to work relentlessly to avoid MTBF in all occasions.
Teaching reliability statistics does not require the teaching of MTBF.
Describing product reliability performance does not benefit by using MTBF.
Creating reliability predictions that create MTBF values doesn’t make sense in most if not all cases. [Read more…]
Electric Grid Risks
Guest Post by Bill Pomfret (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
When the electricity grid fails, there is a risk of cascading impacts from what might seem to be a relatively minor event.
Having just watched a Electric Power video on this very topic, I feel obligated to inform the masses, what would happen if the power grid shut down?
If the power grid goes down, water and natural gas will also likely fail at some point, so planning is critical. Without a plan in place, most of us would be in bad shape with an extended grid outage.
[Read more…]3 Ways to Expose MTBF Problems
MTBF use and thinking is still rampant. It affects how our peers and colleagues approach solving problems.
There is a full range of problems that come from using MTBF, yet how do you spot the signs of MTBF thinking even when MTBF is not mentioned? Let’s explore the approaches that you can use to ferret out MTBF thinking and move your organization toward making informed decisions concerning reliability. [Read more…]
The Army Memo to Stop Using Mil HDBK 217
Over 20 years ago the Assistant Secretary of the Army directed the Army to not use MIL HBK 217 in a request for proposals, even for guidance. Exceptions, by waiver only.
217 is still around and routinely called out. That is a lot of waivers.
Why is 217 and other parts count database prediction packages still in use? Let’s explore the memo a bit more, plus ponder what is maintaining the popularity of 217 and ilk.
[Read more…]Fundamentals of Early Field Results
Fundamentals of Early Field Results
podcast episode with speaker Fred Schenkelberg
At least one group called this the ‘Delta Phase.’ It is the period shortly after launching a product and provides a unique opportunity to reduce future field failures and improve customer satisfaction dramatically. The idea is to aggressively identify and resolve any field issues identified by your customers.
There are a couple of ways to implement the Delta Phase with your product launch. Yet, it requires creating a team from the design/development team that has the authority and capability to implement design changes quickly.
Let’s explore the concept of a delta phase and how to implement it in your organization. Plus, let’s examine a few situations that make significant short and long-term reductions in the field failure rate.
Why do we use Weibull++ over JMP?
Why do we use ReliaSoft instead of JMP to Identify the Time to Failure?
This is a question someone posted to Quora and the system prompted me to answer it, which I did.
This question is part of the general question around which software tools do you use for specific situations. First, my response to the question. [Read more…]
Fundamentals of System Effectiveness
Fundamentals of System Effectiveness
podcast episode with speaker Fred Schenkelberg
System or Operational Effectiveness is comprised of three elements. An early definition included capability, reliability, and availability. Another early definition included availability, dependability, and capability. In essence, can the system do what it’s supposed to do? Is it ready when needed? And is it able to work without failure long enough?
Let’s examine system effectiveness and its factors or elements in more detail. Then, examine an example or two so you can apply this concept to your situation.
Futility of Using MTBF to Design an ALT
Futility of Using MTBF to Design an ALT
Let’s say we want to characterize the reliability performance of a vendor’s device. We’re considering including the device within our system, if and only if, it will survive 5 years reasonably well.
The vendor’s data sheet lists an MTBF value of 200,000 hours. A call to the vendor and search of their site doesn’t reveal any additional reliability information. MTBF is all we have.
We don’t trust it. Which is wise.
Now we want to run an ALT to estimate a time to failure distribution for the device. The intent is to use an acceleration model to accelerate the testing and a time to failure model to adjust to our various expected use conditions.
Given the device, a small interface module with a few buttons, electronics, a display and enclosure, and the data sheet with MTBF, how can we design a meaningful ALT? [Read more…]
A Novel Reason to Use MTBF
A Novel Reason to Use MTBF
Thanks to a reader that noticed my question on why MTBF came into existence, we have a new (new to me at least) rationale for using MTBF. Basically, MTBF provides clarity on the magnitude of a number, because a number in scientific notation is potentially confusing.
What is doubly concerning is the use of MTTF failure rate values in ISO standards dealing with system safety.
Let’s explore the brief email exchange and my thoughts. [Read more…]
Fundamentals of Reliability Goals
Fundamentals of Reliability Goals
podcast episode with speaker Fred Schenkelberg
Goals, objectives, milestones, targets, whatever you call them, just have a clear one. Setting a reliability goal is easy. Get a few people together for a short discussion and in less then 10 minutes you can craft a meaningful reliability goal.
Let’s explore the elements that make up a reliability goal. Plus, the range of inputs you can use to define each element. Plus, some best practices when establishing goals.
Finally, simply setting a goal adds value to your organization – if it is a complete and practical goal. Estimating or measuring that value can be tricky, so let’s discuss a few ways you may quantify the value of a goal.
What is the MTBF Means?
What is the MTBF Means?
Guest post by Msc Teofilo Cortizo
The term MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) within maintenance management, it is the most important KPI after Physical Availability. Unlike MTTF (Mean Time To Failure), which relates directly to available equipment time, MTBF also adds up the time spent inside a repair. That is, it starts its count from a certain failure and only stops its counter when this fault was remedied, started and repeated itself again. According to ISO 12849: 2013, this indicator can only be used for repairable equipment, and MTTF is the equivalent of non-repairable equipment. [Read more…]
Consider the Decision Making First
Reliability activities serve one purpose: to support better decision making.
That is all it does. Reliability work may reveal design weaknesses, which we can decide to address. Reliability work may estimate the longevity of a device, allowing decisions when compared to objectives for reliability.
Creating a report that no one reads is not the purpose of reliability. Running a test or analysis to simply ‘do reliability’ is not helpful to anyone. Anything with MTBF involved … well, you know how I feel about that. [Read more…]
What is Wrong With Success Testing?
Three prototypes survive the gauntlet of stresses and none fail. That is great news, or is it? No failure testing is what I call success testing.
We often want to create a design that is successful, therefore enjoying successful testing results, I.e. No failures means we are successful, right?
Another aspect of success testing is in pass/fail type testing we can minimize the sample size by planning for all prototypes passing the test. If we plan on running the test till we have a failure or two, we need more samples. While it improves the statistics of the results, we have to spend more to achieve the results. We nearly always have limited resources for testing.
Let’s take a closer look at success testing and some of the issues you should consider before planning your next success test. [Read more…]
Defining a Product Life Time
An Elusive Product Life Time Definition
The following note and question appear in my email the other day. I had given the definition of reliability quite a bit of thought, yet have not really thought too much about a definition of ‘product life time’.
So after answering Najib’s question I thought it may make a good conversation starter here. Give it a quite read, and add how you would answer the questions Najib poses. [Read more…]