Articles

Find all articles across all article series listed in reverse chronological order.

Ergodicity, Toilet Paper, and Field Reliability

Ergodicity means that cross-section probabilities equal longitudinal lifetime probabilities. (“Ergos” is Greek for “work.” Think of “ergonomics”.) Ergodicity means that we can estimate age-specific field reliability functions from cross-section data: ships (installed base) and returns (complaints, failures, service parts’ sales, etc.). Ships and returns provide information about lifetimes. Returns are the superpositions of failures of products or their parts started at different times. What does ergodicity have to do with toilet paper? [Read more…]

by Carl S. Carlson 1 Comment

Relationship between FMEA and Risk Management

“If no one ever took risks, Michelangelo would have painted the Sistine floor.” – Neil Simon

FMEA and Risk Management are two distinct bodies of knowledge. This article explores some of the interactions between these two important methods. It is not intended to be a complete analysis of the similarities, differences, and linkages between FMEA and risk management. Rather, it is a high-level overview.

[Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Decision Points: How to Prepare for Big Decisions

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A decision point is a moment when a significant choice presents itself and the decision made will result in a significant change of course that cannot be undone easily. Moreover, that same choice or option is unlikely to reemerge in the future. The essential elements are that the decision is significant, non-repeatable, and non-reversible.

The problem is that decision points don’t always announce themselves as clearly as the examples above suggest. Sometimes, the decision point looks a lot like other, similar moments except the context or consequences are very different. At other times, the decision point might get overlooked, mixed in with other less critical choices amongst a flood of activity. So it can be easy to overlook or miss the decision point. [Read more…]

by James Reyes-Picknell Leave a Comment

Asset Management in Public and Private Sectors

Asset Management in Public and Private Sectors have some similarities and some contrasts. Most of our clients are in the private sector but occasionally we do some public sector work so we see both sides. Often, we notice distinct differences in practices and in what motivates those practices. Both have strengths and weaknesses. Both can learn a lot from each other. [Read more…]

by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

The Tragedy of the Commons

Imagine you were a rancher with a herd of cattle and a small field in which to graze them. One of your primary concerns include determining how many cattle the field could support. With too few cattle, you give up potential earnings that the field could readily sustain. But too many cattle consume the grass faster than the field could replenish it, resulting in malnourished cattle and degraded land quality.

Therefore, as a rancher with long-term prospects, inspecting and maintaining the field, planting new grass, and limiting the number of new cattle in the field all become a cornerstone of your business model. [Read more…]

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

How is Formal Experimentation different from Simplistic Approaches? (Part II)

Statistically based DOE provides several advantages over more simplistic approaches such “one-factor-at-a-time” experimentation. These advantages include:

The use of statistical methodology to determine which factors are actually (statistically) significant
Balanced experimental designs to allow stronger conclusions with respect to cause and effect relationships (as opposed to just finding correlations)
The ability to understand and estimate interactions between factors
The development of predictive models that are used to find optimal solutions for one or more responses

[Read more…]

by Doug Lehr Leave a Comment

Technology Readiness Level (TRL)

Your staff has a concept for a deepwater completion product. They say it is the solution offshore operators need. The concept contains many new components and seems risky. How mature is the technology?

Conducting a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) answers these questions. A TRA assesses the maturity of the technology in a product and assigns it a Technology Readiness Level, or TRL. The higher the TRL, the more mature the technology, and the lower the risk. [Read more…]

by Christopher Jackson Leave a Comment

The Root Cause of a Failure is Always a Decision

We often get sucked into drawn-out conversations (or heated debates) about the ‘true’ meaning of words. Especially when it comes to sports. Was James Harden (a basketball player) in the ‘act of shooting’ when he was fouled? It matters – because if the answer is ‘yes’ he gets up to three free throws. So what does the ‘act of shooting’ mean and who decides it? There will be endless debate over beers about what this means. Perhaps largely dependent on which team you support.

At the end of the day, it usually doesn’t matter. You can debate it as much as you want, but the referees have already decided what happened on the court. It is done. It is over. You can disagree with them. But nothing changes the score. [Read more…]

by Robert (Bob) J. Latino Leave a Comment

Defining & Achieving the Reliability Culture

“There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things, because the innovator has for enemies, all of those who have done well under the old conditions, and luke-warm defenders in those who will do well under the new.”
– Niccole Machiavelli

This quote is appropriate when we seek a paradigm shift towards a proactive culture, after spending our careers trained to become the best ‘react-ors’ or responders, we can be. I encourage you to read this lengthy article to the end for a surprise and to ask you a couple of questions about your experience with reliability. [Read more…]

by James Kovacevic Leave a Comment

The Storeroom Layout: Setting Up Yourself For Success

Proper Storeroom Layout Will Enable Long-Term Success

You begin your day by looking for a part in the storeroom. You are looking for a common bearing used on multiple pieces of equipment on the site. You look up the part in the CMMS and it does not have a bin number associated with it. You walk into the storeroom and beginning going through the “bearing section”. Only the bearing is not there. You wander over the equipment section and find it buried in the equipment specific drawer, but you know that it is used elsewhere. Is this the best way to organize materials, by equipment? [Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

A Solution for the Changing Nature of Work

Guest Post by Stephen Miller (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Much is being written these days about the future of work and the problems it presents. This piece presents one way we could manage this constantly evolving situation.

The world is changing rapidly in so many ways, primarily, but not limited to technology, geopolitics and climate change. There is no attempt to assign priorities here; these factors are all intimately connected and affect the outcome in concert. [Read more…]

by James Reyes-Picknell Leave a Comment

We want it now and we want it cheap

These days most of us are used to instant gratification – we want it now and we want it cheap! When it comes to information, entertainment, finding your way around, and communications we more or less have it all at our fingertips. It’s also available to us just about anywhere. We can even order and pay for coffee to pick up on our way from the commuter train to the office – no line ups for delays. We can book houses, rooms, hotels, airlines, vacations, and rental cars at the touch of our fingers with apps that show us the cheapest options. [Read more…]

by Bryan Christiansen 1 Comment

How To Use CMMS To Supplement Root Cause Analysis

According to the American Society of Quality (ASQ), a root cause is defined as “A factor that caused a nonconformance and should be permanently eliminated through process improvement. The root cause is the core issue—the highest-level cause—that sets in motion the entire cause-and-effect reaction that ultimately leads to the problem(s).”

As most of you already know, Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is a systematic process for identifying the origins, or root cause, of problems and determining an approach to minimize or eliminate their risk of recurrence. It focuses on preventing problems at the source rather than resorting to a firefighting approach and being reactive every time. RCA tries to be more scientific about asset failures, going one step beyond troubleshooting. [Read more…]

by Larry George Leave a Comment

Gozinto Theory and Parts’ Installed Base

Andrew Vázsonyi led an interesting life. He collaborated with mathematician Paul Erdös, he was co-founder of The Institute of Management Sciences, and he wrote “Which Door has the Cadillac: Adventures of a Real-Life Mathematician”. Around 1970, Andrew Vázsonyi interviewed for a teaching job in Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia. During the job interview, he taught us Gozinto Theory. [Read more…]

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

How do I Choose the Appropriate Type of Control Chart?

Proper control chart selection is critical to realizing the benefits of Statistical Process Control. Many factors should be considered when choosing a control chart for a given application. These include:

The type of data being charted (continuous or attribute)
The required sensitivity (size of the change to be detected) of the chart
Whether the chart includes data from multiple locations or not
The ease and cost of sampling
Production volumes

[Read more…]