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You are here: Home / Articles / Ancient Japanese Text Contained A Warning For 2011 Fukushima Disaster

by Sanjeev Saraf Leave a Comment

Ancient Japanese Text Contained A Warning For 2011 Fukushima Disaster

Ancient Japanese Text Contained A Warning For 2011 Fukushima Disaster

Nihon Sandai Jitsuroku – is an ancient Japanese text compiled in 901.

It talks about an earthquake and Tsunami that occurred in 869: 

“Then the sea began roaring like a big thunderstorm. The sea surface rose up and the huge waves attached the land”

People died in landslide or were crushed by the collapse of their homes.

The event did happen 12 centuries ago – not a myth or a folklore.

Active Fault and Earthquake Research center in Japan estimated that such earthquakes can occur in every 800-1100 years.

2011 – 869 = 1142!

 On 11-Mar-2011, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake shook Japan and was followed by Tsunami.

This disabled the power supply and loss of back up power to nuclear reactor at Fukushima Daiiichi nuclear plant.

The resultant loss of reactor core cooling led to

  • three nuclear meltdowns,
  • three hydrogen explosions,
  • the release of radioactive contamination in Units 1, 2 and 3 between 12 and 15 March
Incident impact
  • Official figures show that there have been 2313 disaster-related deaths among evacuees from Fukushima incident.
  • Disaster-related deaths are in addition to the about 19,500 that were killed by the earthquake or tsunami.

Fukushima panel had heard of the 869 event but it was so distant that they had no emotional connection.

A severe earthquake and Tsunami was disregarded as double jeopardy in spite of warnings by experts.

Low likelihood does not imply it cannot occur tomorrow!

Filed Under: Articles, on Risk & Safety, Operational Risk Process Safety

About Sanjeev Saraf

Reduce risks, Increase Uptime, Reduce costs

I did my first litigation support work in 2000.

Since then I have been obsessed with preventing future failures. Some of these failures can have catastrophic consequences.

Having tried various techniques, learning / unlearning “latest” paradigms, it is clear we have a long way to go!

But instead of thoughtful work, what I mostly see are platitudes and oversimplifications. No keen practical insights!

I want to change that.

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